Grapevine Yield Development and Crop Estimation book
Abstract
There is a strong demand for improved crop forecasting in the wine industry. Lately this demand has intensified as major producers and purchasers of grapes are increasingly stipulating that particular yield targets should be met, in the belief that this will improve and maintain wine quality and substantial cost savings and revenue gains could be realised if the volume of grape intake did not fluctuate so much. Apart from the substantial economic benefits of improved crop forecasting alone, it is an essential first step to successful yield regulation. Consequently there is a strong demand for improved systems to forecast yield. The performance of the Australian wine industry is sensitive to mismatches between expected and actual grape intake. These mismatches generate inefficiencies that result in foregone revenue and extra costs in vineyards, wineries and distribution chains. Winery intake planners seek accurate estimates of likely grape production from vineyard managers at various stages throughout the season in advance of harvest. However, inaccurate forecasts have been a source of irritation, discontent and conflict throughout the Australian wine industry.
Summary
The Australian wine industry enjoyed considerable success from 1991 to 2007. It more than tripled in size from less than 400 million litres to 1.2 billion litres and achieved total revenues of $5 billion in 2007. The value of exports grew from $212 million to $3,004 million. The industry and many of its participants built an enviable global reputation for producing quality wine and created strong export markets particularly in the UK, US and Canada. Despite the recent difficulties facing the industry there are number of positives. There has been a significant increase in domestic consumption of quality wines. From 2007 to 2012 the domestic consumption of Australian wine sold above $15/ bottle increased by $268 million (64%) in value terms and 11.6 million litres (42%) by volume. Unfortunately for the overall industry this only accounts for 16% of all wine produced in Australia by value and 3% by volume.