Major shifts in consumer behaviour are impacting wine consumption across the globe. In five years, the number of Gen Zs of legal drinking age will double in size but this demographic is drinking less alcohol than previous generations. In addition, consumers are increasingly mindful of their drinking habits, moderating alcohol consumption and exploring no- or low-alcohol options for health and wellness reasons. These factors, as well as cost of living pressures, have seen wine consumption decline in most established markets. However, two wine categories that have been growing are no and lower alcohol wines.
This market bulletin provides an update on the performance of the no and low alcohol wine categories globally, highlighting markets that have been growing.
According to IWSR, in the five years to 2023, the consumption of no alcohol wines increased by 13 per cent per annum to reach 4.5 million cases and for low alcohol increased by 21 per cent per annum to 3.3 million cases (see Figure 1). In comparison, consumption of still wine declined by 3 per cent per annum to 2 billion cases. This highlights that while growing strongly, the two categories are still very small in size.
IWSR is forecasting consumption of low alcohol wines to overtake no alcohol wines by 2028, with low alcohol wine consumption forecast to grow by 14 per cent per annum over the period, compared to 7 per cent per annum for no alcohol wines. Still wine consumption is forecast to continue to decline but at a lower rate of 1 per cent per annum. The decline in still wine consumption will not be offset by the increase in no-alcohol and low-alcohol wines. Between 2023 and 2028, still wine consumption is forecast to drop by 123 million cases compared to a combined increase of 5 million cases for no-alcohol and low-alcohol wines. That said, the combined share of no-alcohol and low-alcohol wine of total still wine sales is forecast to grow from 0.2 per cent in 2018 to 0.7 per cent in 2028.
Figure 1: Still wine consumption v no-alcohol and low-alcohol wine consumption
Source: IWSR
No-alcohol wine markets
In 2023, three-quarters of the global consumption of no-alcohol wines came from five markets – the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany and Australia (see Figure 2). The consumption in all five markets is forecast by IWSR to grow in the next five years but by far the strongest growth is in the largest market, the United States. Between 2023 and 2028, the consumption of no-alcohol wine in the United States is forecast to almost double from 1 million cases to 1.8 million cases. The only other market to reach 1 million cases by 2028 in size is the United Kingdom.
Other markets outside the top five with strong growth in no-alcohol wine consumption are mostly located in Europe, such as Belgium, Spain and the Netherlands.
Figure 2: No-alcohol wine consumption by top five markets
Source: IWSR
Low-alcohol wine markets
In 2023, over 90 per cent of the global consumption of low-alcohol wines came from four of the five major no-alcohol wine markets – the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, United Kingdom, Germany and Finland (see Figure 3).
The United States is by far the largest market for low-alcohol wines and is forecast to drive growth in the category out to 2028, with consumption more than doubling to over 4.5 million cases. While consumption in Australia is much lower at 400,000 cases, Australia is the second biggest market for low-alcohol wines and is forecast to grow to over 500,000 cases by 2028.
Figure 3: Low-alcohol wine consumption by top five markets
Source: IWSR
Key takeaways
The global consumption of no-alcohol and low-alcohol wine is forecast to grow strongly in the next five years, albeit off a small base. The United States is by far the biggest market for each of the two categories, but Australia is also a significant market, particularly for low-alcohol wines. Outside of the United States and Australia, the growth is coming from established markets in Europe. There is very little presence of no-alcohol and low-alcohol wines in emerging markets, especially in Asia.
While the growth in no-alcohol and low-alcohol wines is forecast to be strong, it will not offset the decline in still wine sales. However, the share of the categories is likely to continue to grow over time as consumers, especially younger demographics, continue to moderate alcohol consumption and seek lower or no alcohol beverage alternatives.