Together, the Nordic markets of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden represent 30 million litres of Australian wine exports – about 5 per cent of the volume exported in the 12 months to June 2024. As wine markets around the world adjust to consumer trends and spending, the Nordic markets are not immune and this Market Bulletin will highlight some of these latest trends.
On 17 and 19 September 2024, Wine Australia and New Zealand Winegrowers will be hosting trade and consumer tastings in Stockholm and Copenhagen to showcase the quality and diversity of Australian and New Zealand wine to these important markets.
More details about the tastings and event programs in Stockholm and Copenhagen
Stability amongst decline
According to IWSR, the Nordic markets represent 7 per cent of the value of wine sold in Europe. The North West European markets, while much bigger consumers of wine, have been declining in consumption over the past five years. This decline is predicted to continue through to 2028, driven mostly by the United Kingdom and France.
Figure 1: Wine consumption in Europe by region
Source: IWSR
In comparison, the decline in the Nordic countries is predicted to stabilise and even grow slightly in the next five years. Driving this slight forecast growth in wine consumption are Sweden and Norway, while Denmark and Finland are expected to be flat over the forecast period (see Figure 2).
Figure 2: 5-year average volume growth rates of wine consumption in Nordic markets
Source: IWSR
Although these markets demonstrate similarities in certain trends such as rising inflation, consumers moving away from red wine and towards white, and a willingness to adopt sustainable practices, each market has its own unique circumstances as well.
Population growth in Sweden results in more wine consumption
Sweden represents one of the few European markets where wine consumption has grown in the last five years (up 1 per cent in volume per annum) and consumption is forecast to continue to grow at a similar rate out to 2028. This growth in consumption is driven by an increase in population, which has resulted in more wine drinkers. However, per capita consumption has fallen slightly in recent years, from 26 litres per adult in 2021 to 25 litres in 2023.
The decline in per capita consumption is largely driven by cost-of-living concerns, with more than half of regular wine drinkers reporting that they are going out less and spending less when they do. One in three wine drinkers are also buying cheaper wine or purchasing bigger formats[1]. This is evident in sales data provided by the Swedish alcohol monopoly, Systembolaget. According to sales figures for 2023 (available for levy-payers and exporters), bag-in-box sales were nearly flat while bottled sales declined. Australian cask sales increased in volume by 10 per cent year-on-year, increasing to 73 per cent of all Australian sales in the monopoly and an 8 per cent share of all cask sales.
Also influencing these trends is the move towards sustainable packaging, largely influenced by targets set by the monopoly, but also consumers in the Nordic countries being open to purchasing items that have a lower environmental impact. The number of regular wine drinkers who have purchased small bag-in-boxes (1.5 litres) and Tetra Pak have increased significantly since 2019, from 14 to 20 per cent of regular wine drinkers and 11 to 15 per cent, respectively[2].
Reduced cross-border purchasing after pandemic boosts wine sales in Norway
The volume of wine consumed in Norway has grown by 3 per cent per annum in the last five years. This is largely due to a decline in cross-border purchases made in Sweden during the pandemic and remaining subdued in 2023; this translates to more wine being purchased in the Norwegian alcohol monopoly – Vinmonopolet. Sales are expected stabilise in the next five years.
In contrast to the other Nordic markets, Norway has a very high share of wine sales sold in the premium segment (above 128 NOK per bottle). 43 per cent of wine sales are premium, and this share is expected to grow to 45 per cent by 2028. This high share is driven by the affluence of the Norwegian consumer – GDP per capita in 2023 was US$88,000, compared to US$56,000 in Sweden[3]. High duties on alcohol are also a factor, although these are capped for higher-priced wines – making them “cheaper” in comparison to other markets. Increasing wine knowledge amongst Norwegian consumers means that the premiumisation trend is expected to continue in the coming years, even though some downtrading has occurred as the cost of living has increased.
Figure 3: Volume of wine sales in Norway by price segment
Source: IWSR via the Market Explorer
High Danish per capita wine consumption in gradual decline
The Danish wine market (the only non-monopoly market in this group) declined by 1 per cent in volume per year in the last five years, with the decline expected to ease slightly in the next five. The trends impacting this market are similar to many developed wine markets around the world – consumers moderating their alcohol intake, wine losing share to other alcoholic beverages, and cost-of-living pressures. Per capita consumption in Denmark is much higher than Sweden (32 litres per person) but has been on a downward trend for a number of years (see Figure 4).
Figure 4: Danish adult per capita wine consumption over time
Source: IWSR via the Market Explorer
Denmark is Australia’s largest market in the Nordics, both in exports and retail sales. 89 per cent of wine exports to Denmark are unpackaged (up from 74 per cent in 2015) and then bottled there or shipped to other markets (most likely Germany or Sweden). Australian wine exports to Denmark have increased by 3 per cent per annum over the last 10 years.
Changes in the regulatory landscape in Finland could shift consumption patterns
Finland is the smallest market of the group – representing 6 million 9-litre cases in 2023 and declining by 1 per cent per year in the last five years. Wine has a much lower share of the alcohol market in Finland compared to the other Nordic markets, due to the popularity of beer and RTDs. Unlike Sweden, population growth has not helped to increase the number of wine drinkers – the number of regular wine drinkers declined by 11 per cent between 2017 and 2023.
In a recent development, the maximum alcohol content for drinks sold in Finnish supermarkets has now been increased from 5.5 per cent to 8 per cent. This means that Finland now has a much higher threshold compared to the other monopoly markets (Sweden is 3.5 per cent and Norway 4.7 per cent). Although the change excludes RTDs and other mixed alcoholic drinks, it will increase the availability of beer and lower-alcohol wines to the Finnish consumer.
Even though the Swedish wine market is nearly four times the size of the Finnish wine market, the volume of Australian wine exports to the two markets is very similar (see Figure 5). As Australia’s market share is also relatively similar between the two markets (around 7 per cent), the export figures under-represent Swedish consumption of Australian wine. Approximately half of Australian wine consumed in Sweden is imported from other European markets such as Denmark, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, or the United Kingdom.
Figure 5: Volume of Australian exports to the Nordics
